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BDS Current Issue Volume XXXIX, March-June 2016, Number 1&2

Challenges of Missing Data in Analyses of Aid Activity: The Case of US Aid Activity

Author: Beáta Udvari, Gábor Dávid Kiss & Julianna Pontet

Abstract
Analysing aid activities has been in the centre of academic research; nevertheless, it is demanding to conduct long-term time series analyses due to missing data. Although there are several methods available to overcome this challenge, their distortion effect may result in unpredicted impacts on aid allocation. Thus, this paper aims to analyse the long-term motivations of US aid allocation with panel regression models. Two methods of handling missing data were tested in order to answer the question whether there is a significant difference in the results or not. Results suggest that there are several tools in the hands of a researcher to overcome missing data problems without any distorting effects. Furthermore, results reinforce the idea that US aid allocation has mainly been motivated by its economic drivers (export possibilities) rather than by war or conflict fears in the long run.Keywords: Aid Allocation, Missing Data, Panel RegressionJEL Classification: F35, C15, C33

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Monetary Policy Stance and Stock Price in Bangladesh

Author: Md. Sajib Hossain, Md. Amzad Hossain & Shabnaz Amin

Abstract
This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the monetary stance and stock market performance of Bangladesh using monthly data from January 2001 to December 2013. The empirical investigation was conducted using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model consisting of five alternative measures of monetary indicators - 91 day T-bill rate, reserve money, broad money, call money rate and weighted average deposit rate and DSE General Index (DGEN) for stock market performance. In the case of using 91 day Treasury bill (T-bill) or call money rate as monetary indicators, a long-run co-integration relationship between DGEN, T-bill rate, CPI and exchange rate is found. However, in the case of broad money, reserve money and weighted average deposit rate, no long-run co-integration is found. Overall, this paper suggests that stock market valuation level is affected by monetary conditions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Stock Price, ARDL Model, BangladeshJEL Classification: B26, C12, C22, C32, C58

Formal vs. Informal Seeds: Adoption and Productivity Differences

Author: Kazi Iqbal & K. A. Toufique

Abstract
While the literature on seeds is replete with the supply-side aspects of the market such as seed distribution, variety development, etc., there is hardly any rigorous study on the demand side of the seed market. This paper raises three important questions related to the development of the seed sector of Bangladesh. First, which crops are produced with more formal seeds? Second, who use formal seeds more? Is it the small farms or the large farms? Third, what is the output gain from using formal seeds? Based on a survey of 700 farming households from seven districts of Bangladesh, we have found that the spread of formal seeds is taking place predominantly from some non-rice crops such as vegetables, maize, wheat, etc. which are predominantly supplied by the private sector and the smaller farms are using more formal seeds. We have also found that there is an inverse relationship between farm-size and use of formal seeds for all crops but revenue and output per unit of land is higher for the larger farms. Finally, we have found that formal seed is more productive than the informal seeds – the productivity gain is about 10 per cent for rice but much higher for non-rice crops. Based on these findings we conclude that increasing use of formal seeds will increase output but the small farmers may gain less despite adopting more formal seeds.Keywords: Formal Seeds, Informal Seeds, Adoption of Seeds, Agricultural Productivity JEL Classification: Q12, Q16, Q18

Impact of Access to Credit on Rental Markets of Agricultural Capital Goods: Evidence from Assam of North-East India

Author: Anup Kumar Das

Abstract
Rental market of farm capital goods plays an important role in farm operations and in enhancing production and productivity of agriculture. However, owing to financial constraints, farmers, especially the small and marginal farmers, fail to participate in such markets. Therefore, the paper examines the impact of credit on participation in rental markets of agricultural capital goods. Based on the primary data collected from 232 farm households in Assam, it is found that access to credit has a primary role in encouraging the farmers to participate in rental markets of agricultural capital goods. However, different forms of credit make the rental market participation also different. Institutional credit helps in extending such markets by encouraging the suppliers of services of farm capital goods. On the other hand, non-institutional credit promotes participation in rental markets of farm capital goods both from the supply and the demand side. Keywords: Rental Markets, Credit, AgricultureJEL Classification: Q12

Estimates of Per Capita Consumption of Food Grains in Bangladesh

Author: Monzur Hossain & Mohammad Yunus

Abstract
It is generally argued that the estimates of per capita consumption of food grains in Bangladesh are grossly underestimated due to the failure of comprehensively taking into account the consumption of food items made of rice and wheat at home and outside. To give some insight into this debate, this study revisited the per capita consumption of food grains through a primary survey of a nationally representative sample in 2012 by considering a comprehensive list of 36 food grains items that are consumed at both home and outside. The findings of this study show that the per capita consumption of food grains estimated from the BIDS survey, 2012 is higher than that reported by the BBS estimates based on the HIES 2010. Using the LA/AIDS model, the projection shows that the demand for both rice and wheat will decrease in both rural and urban areas, albeit marginally. The estimated per capita consumption of rice and wheat, the price and income elasticities thereof, and the consequent projections can be used as instruments for the integrated and effective planning on food grains distribution and management in Bangladesh. Moreover, BBS and other organisations involved in foodgrain consumption estimates may consider the methodologies applied in this study in their future surveys and research studies.Keywords: Food Grains Consumption, Income Elasticity, Own-price Elasticity, Cross-price Elasticity, LA/AIDS ModelJEL Classification: C53, D1, D12

Bringing the Art of Reasoning to the Driving Seat of Policymaking (An Economist in the Real World: The Art of Policymaking in India by Kaushik Basu)

Author: K. A. Toufique

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