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Measuring the Effect of Education in the First Demographic Dividend: Evidence from Bangladesh

The demographic dividend, a window for boost in economic growth offered by the change in the age structure of a population, results from the increasing shares of working age population. This phenomenon is referred to as “First Demographic Dividend” and the same window is assumed to be closed after few decades with an introduction of a “Second” dividend resulted from potential savings accumulation by the wage earners, given that any further counter-shock in age structure will not happen within the period between first and second dividend.

The ratio of working age population to total population in Bangladesh has been increasing over the last three decades and expected to fall in the upcoming decades. The country's economy is also growing. Data shows that unemployment rate among labor force with post-secondary education is much higher. Though the peak of the demographic dividend will be reached within 2030-2040, we are not certain whether the country’s achievement in education has any dominant contribution to the dividend from demographic change. The study will analyze how much the educational attainment has effects to the first demographic dividend and answer whether this demographic dividend is/will be purely an age effect using a time series data set with a projection over a longer time horizon. The study will be conducted using the population data at disaggregated level and relevant economic profiles.

Study Director: Shahidul Islam

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