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Medium and Long-Term Projections of Foodgrain Demand, Supply and Trade Balance in Bangladesh

Quazi Shahabuddin &a

 

Abstract

The shape of development in the medium to long-term is most likely to be influenced in a significant way by the dynamics of food grain demand-supply balance in the country. A consistent framework for projection of medium and long-term demand and supply of food grains in Bangladesh has, therefore, been developed in this paper. The analysis involves a prospective view of future demand for rice and wheat, and the growth of food grain production, particularly rice under increasing resource constraints. Alternative projections of food grain supply, demand and trade balance in year 2000 and beyond (upto year 2020) are presented in the paper. The exercise demonstrates that Bangladesh is expected to produce, under favorable conditions, enough rice to meet domestic demand, but would be unable to export regular varieties of rice due to its inability to generate surplus at a internationally competitive price. the prospect of export of arommatic varieties of rice, however, seems quite encouraging. Import of wheat (ranging between about one million ton in 2000 to about two million tons in 2020) will need to continue. The policy implications of alternative projection scenario have been spelt out in the paper.

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