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BDS Current Issue Volume XXXVI September 2013 Num 3

Estimation of Internal Migration by the National Growth Rate Method: An Alternative Approach

Author: Md. Mizanur Rahman

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This paper proposes an extension of the National Growth Rate Method (NGRM) for making flexible estimation of internal migration into a region or a city, by incorporating the migration pattern as a function of time. Several single- and two-parameter families of functions of time have been suggested for the purpose. The estimation procedure is outlined along with the data requirement. The flexible NGRM, like its precursor of improved NGRM, can provide separate estimates for both the net migrants and their natural increase, which can be subjected to socio-economic analysis for the motivations or implications of migration.

Openness-Inflation Puzzle: Evidence from Pakistan

Author: Khalil Ahmad & Haider Mahmood

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In the literature, there is evidence of an inverse relation between trade openness and inflation which has been widely questioned. More recently, economic openness has been related to aggregate demand and supply to shed light on inverse openness-inflation in the developed countries. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the long run connection between trade openness and inflation in a developing country, Pakistan, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The empirical finding suggests that the negative openness-inflation relationship holds for Pakistan.

Change in Input Relations in Bangladesh Agriculture, 1973-1995

Author: Bilkis Raihana

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The major forces of technological change and input substitution induced by relative factor price changes have led to important changes in the input mix in Bangladesh agriculture.  The labour input has been replaced by fertiliser and irrigation. This change in input use raises significant issues with respect to the nature of factor substitution and input demand. This study sheds light on these issues by using the translog cost function approach. The findings reveal that the AES between land and fertiliser (N-F) shows increasing substitutability relationship over time, whereas the AES between fertiliser and irrigation (F-I) displays high substitutability throughout the study period along with a declining trend in the latter period.

From Judgmental Projection to Time Series Forecast: Does it Alter the Debt Sustainability Analysis of Bangladesh?

Author: GOUR GOBINDA GOSWAMI & MOHAMMAD MASHNUN HOSSAIN

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Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) conducted by the multilateral organisations like the World Bank and IMF falls under the domain of Judgmental Projection reflecting their views or judgment about the economy.  The study incorporates time series forecast using ARIMA method to analyse debt sustainability in practice in Bangladesh. More specifically, macro, fiscal, current account and debt variables have been forecasted according to the requirement of debt sustainability framework (DSF) for use in a standard DSA template. Using the time series forecast based inputs, the study concludes that debt is sustainable for Bangladesh for the period 2013-2033 based on the standard country specific debt burden threshold. The study notes that the results produced by different methodologies broadly follow similar path. However, time series forecasts imply a better economic situation in terms of improved repayment capacity compared with judgmental projection. 

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