Bangladesh integrated water resources assessment project- major findings 

[BIDS component of the research was conducted by K M Nabiul Islam, M Asaduzzaman, M K Mujeri, Moogdho M. Mahzab, Morshed Alam, Quazi Shahabuddin and Md Nazrul Islam]

Climate change, increasing population and economic growth are expected to increase the demand for water resources in Bangladesh. However, the quantity and quality of its surface and ground water resources may also be negatively affected by climate change and economic development. There is a real risk of reduced access to safe drinking and irrigation water, and of induced contamination of groundwater by saline intrusion and ingress of polluted surface waters. 

A Bangladesh – Australia collaborative research project (CSIRO from Australia and WARPO, BWDB, BIDS, IWM and CEGIS from Bangladesh) has conducted integrated water resources assessment and socio-economic impacts of water in Bangladesh. The project was supported by Australian Aid. 

The research developed an integrated water resources / socio-economic study to provide a national overview of the resource, the impacts of development and climate change on both surface and ground water resources. It assessed the way that impacts affect the poor and vulnerable, the amount of water available for and used by different economic sectors such as agriculture, industry and households in order to promote economic growth and improve livelihoods of local people. 

Outcomes

1.    The project identified key issues and challenges for Bangladesh in future water use and management. 

2.    The project identified potential hotspots for future detailed local assessments. Hotspots included where there is high risk of contamination by saline intrusion or polluted surface waters, and where there is high risk of lack of access to safe drinking water and irrigation water in rural areas.

3.    The project undertook capacity building in Bangladesh organisations on integrated water resources assessment including assessment of socio-economic impacts of climate change and future water demand due to population growth. 

Key findings, issues and challenges.

•    Food security is achievable – though there will be challenges. Closing yield gaps between high and low performing crop areas and continued crop variety development which is making available crops with yields greater than those currently planted will help meet the challenge. These developments do not necessarily require more water or land than is used today. However, the challenge is to continue to improve varieties and farm performance.

•    Water is crucial to food security but land may be more limiting in the future. Of great concern is the reduction in the land available for agriculture: about 1 % of agricultural land is being converted to other uses each year. If this continues unchecked to 2050, the land available for rice production would probably be insufficient to meet the national rice demand. 

•    Groundwater use is unsustainable in some areas, and a concern in many areas. The areas of greatest concern are the Barind area, where the pumping of groundwater for irrigation is excessive, and Dhaka, where the pumping of groundwater for municipal use is unsustainable. 

•    Sustainable levels of groundwater use, and the exchange of groundwater and surface water, are generally not known: this is a key knowledge gap. How can Bangladesh develop sustainable water management if the volume that may be sustainably used is not known?

•    Increased flooding and salinity intrusion is a key climate change risk. As well as the risk to lives and property, the combined effects would limit the area of land available for crop production.

•    Climate change is a key concern, and for many water related issues coping with climate variability is likely to enable coping with climate change. Bangladesh should (as it already is) prepare for climate change, and coping with climate variability such as the extreme floods, storm surges and droughts already experienced is likely to prepare the country for climate change at least to 2050. The World Bank point out that investments in the last fifty years have increased the resilience of Bangladesh to climate related hazards, and significantly reduced damages and losses from extreme climatic events: notwithstanding, the events still cause large economic losses and slow progress in reducing poverty.

•    Water use in Dhaka is unsustainable; returning to sustainable use will include solving water quality problems.

•    Economic development overall is unlikely to be much affected by water related climate change but the structure of the economy may be. Climate change is projected to slow agricultural growth, which (all other things being equal) will bias the economy to industry and services, and increase agricultural imports. 

•    The poor are very vulnerable to floods, droughts and other water-related hazards. Development is the main factor in future poverty reduction and a key mechanism for reducing vulnerability to water hazards. Growth in non-agricultural employment and improved education are likely to be the greatest positive influences. Nutritional outcomes are also likely to be positively influenced by general economic development leading to greater level of household workforce participation in paid employment. This suggests that poverty reduction policy should be directed towards accelerating growth in non-agricultural activities.