BDS Current Issue Volume XXXVIII March 2015 Num.1


Economic Impacts of Oilseed Research and Development in Bangladesh

Author: M A Monayem Miah, S M A Shiblee and M A Rashid

This paper estimates the economic impacts of oilseed research and development (R&D) in Bangladesh. For the purpose, a total of 1,980 oilseed growing farmers are randomly selected from 11 oilseed growing districts in the country for gathering primary data using pre-tested interview schedules during 2011-12. An ex-post evaluation method using economic surplus model under both closed and small-open market economy situations has been adopted to estimate the rate of returns of investment in oilseeds R&D. The adoption of improved mustard, groundnut, sesame and soybean varieties at the farm level creates an additional employment of 12.7, 11.6, 15.4, and 6.1 man-days/ha for the respondent farmers respectively. The livelihood status of the adopting households is much better than that of non-adopting households. Ex-post evaluation of the past investment on oilseeds R&D reveals an IRR of 24 per cent, which ranges from 22 per cent to 26 per cent under different assumptions. The amounts of NPV and foreign exchange savings due to R&D of oilseeds during 1998-2012 are Tk. 4,769.04 million and US$ 97.11 million respectively.

Asymmetric Transmission of International Price of Edible Oil in Bangladesh

Author: M A Taslim and Md Amzad Hossain

Market supplies of many essential commodities in Bangladesh, such as edible oil, consist of mostly imports since domestic production is small. An observed peculiarity of the pattern of price variations of these commodities is that when the international prices go up, domestic prices respond positively almost immediately, but domestic prices do not show the same fluidity when the world prices go down. It is frequently alleged that collusion among the business people prevents price flexibility in the downward direction. Using time series technique this paper finds evidence that although domestic price and international price move together in the long run, the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium is not symmetric: positive shocks are transmitted at a faster rate compared with the negative ones. This paper investigates the soybean oil market in depth and finds that this is not necessarily the result of collusion among the traders; the behaviour of the soybean oil price can be explained by the interplay of competitive market forces in the specific context of edible oil industry in Bangladesh. The level of stocks, price and supply expectations and the particular structure of the domestic edible oil market all contribute to the evolution of soybean oil prices.

Rural Poverty and Female Job Participation: A Case Study of Two Districts in West Bengal

Author: Soumyendra Kishore Datta and Tanushree De

In rural areas, women are the major driving force of development in the communities. They combine the role of farm labour and off-farm occupation together with household activities. They are often entrepreneurial cash-earners supporting their families and creating opportunities for others. Women perform activities like cooking, caring for children and the old, collecting water and fuel wood and overall management of the households. An important prerequisite for performing such roles is an adequate asset base in the households for deriving multiple services and pursuing diversified livelihood strategy. This enables the households to have access to uninterrupted work opportunities for earning a decent income. This paper combines housing condition, diversified asset base and income to form a graded index of poverty where lower values reflect relative poverty. Using primary data from eight villages of four Gram-Panchayats in two relatively backward districts of Bankura and Birbhum in West Bengal, the paper explains the existence of poverty using multiple regression model. A logit regression is also used to analyse the factors that have a bearing on women job participation.

Towards 2021: Examining Alternative Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh

Author: Onil Banerjee, Moogdho M Mahzab and M Asaduzzaman

Bangladesh aims to reach the middle income country status by 2021. This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the key drivers of growth including population, factor productivity growth and climate change. The results show that small changes in population and productivity growth have a greater impact than climate change and, in a business as usual scenario, 2021 targets would be reached in 2031. For reaching the middle-income country status by 2021, the country requires a 3.5 per cent productivity growth yielding a GDP and GDP growth of $366.1 billion and nearly 12 per cent respectively. It is also estimated that reducing the impact of climate change by 25 per cent would save $5.06 million annually.

Regional Inequality of West Bengal: A District Level Study

Author: Saurav Kumar Dey

This paper examines the inequality and convergence of districts of West Bengal using the neo-classical convergence theory. The district domestic product (DDP) has been used to understand the regional inequality pattern and convergence among the 18 districts of West Bengal. The estimated σ-convergence and unconditional β-convergence reveal uneven growth among the districts. The σ-convergence measured in terms of log SD and CV shows rising trend during the study period. The dispersion amongst districts, measured in terms of log standard deviation of per capita income, increased from 7.54 in 1993-94 to 8.87 in 2007-08. The estimated result of unconditional β-convergence also supports the hypothesis that rich districts grow faster than the poor ones. The positive and significant correlation coefficient between gross DDP and various socioeconomic variables also support economic reasoning that districts with higher per capita income have higher level of urbanization, literacy, banking infrastructure, per capita bank advances, number of MSMEs and employment in MSMEs. For reversing the tendency of divergence, backward districts have to be developed, especially through developing social and physical infrastructure.

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