This paper is based on the survey findings of the study “Impact of New System of Distribution of Fertilizer and Irrigation Machines in Bangladesh” conducted in 1982/83. Input entrepreneurs (fertilizer wholesalers and retailers and irrigation equipment owners) are mostly large land owners. Quite a few of them, specially fertilizer dealers, are simultaneously involved in several other commodity trades. With privatisation, the number of retailers increased, whereas wholesaling has become more concentrated. initial response of irrigation entrepreneurs in purchasing equipment is positive but their loan repayment performance is poor. Irrigation coverage by an equipment is low except STWs. Water charges by individual/group owners are found to be higher primarily because of quicker recovery of capital cost. The paper also examines the examines the investment pattern and comes to the conclusion that the existing pattern is not congenial for agricultural development.
Development of a macroeconomic forecasting model as an alternative to using structural econometric models based on shaky prior information is the objective of this article. Like structural models, it produces a system of equations which can project the future paths of economic variables using their historical data. Unlike the structural model, however, this model can be constructed based entirely on regularities in the data themselves. This model can be used to predict several periods in the future, analyse unexpacted shocks to the economy and also estimate the probability of future events.
Food policy planning in Bangladesh has consistently ignored the problem of output fluctuations, despite the fact that this has led to considerable dislocation to overall economic performance. A necessary first step therefore, is to attempt an assessment of the broad magnitudes involved, as well as their dispersion and trend. Three specific questions are investigated in this context : (a) What is the magnitude of instability and has there been a tendency for it to increase over time? (b) Are certain areas (i.e., districts) and certain crops or seasons particularly vulnerable it? (c) Is foodgrain production non-random in character?Aggregate instability levels in Bangladesh is small, with no evidence of non-randomness or increase over time. Considerable variations by crops and districts noted, localised shortages is nevertheless high. Fluctuations in one crop are also found to be correlated with another (e.g., Aus and Aman, Aman and Boro), suggesting the operation of critical variables whose impact is not limited to a particular crop alone. Some evidence of non-randomness, along with a tendency for fluctuations to increase, is also noted for Boro and Wheat (HYV). If these tendencies persist, the benefits of a strategy to raise productivity through rapid HYV diffusion may need to be viewed against the costs of adjustments to heightened instability.
By analysing the data for 1863/64-1976/77, the paper attempts to study the pattern of income distribution and poverty in Bangladesh, and it also compares the socioeconomic status of the country in mid-1970s with other developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. There has been a drastic deterioration in inequality and poverty in recent years, and this disturbing finding is reinforced by the fact that Bangladesh occupies the lowest position in the Third World in terms of a composite social index. The broad policy recommendation is that relatively more attention should be given to the social sectors while allocating resources for the country’s future development.
