Towards 2021: Examining Alternative Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh

Onil Banerjee, Moogdho M Mahzab and M Asaduzzaman

 

Abstract

Bangladesh aims to reach the middle income country status by 2021. This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the key drivers of growth including population, factor productivity growth and climate change. The results show that small changes in population and productivity growth have a greater impact than climate change and, in a business as usual scenario, 2021 targets would be reached in 2031. For reaching the middle-income country status by 2021, the country requires a 3.5 per cent productivity growth yielding a GDP and GDP growth of $366.1 billion and nearly 12 per cent respectively. It is also estimated that reducing the impact of climate change by 25 per cent would save $5.06 million annually.

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