An Econometric Analysis of Credit Constraint, Foreign Interest Rates and Currency Depreciation in the Demand for Money in Bangladesh

M. Kabir Hassan

 

Abstract

This research empirically examines the role of credit constraint, foreign interest rates, currency depreciation, domestic inflation rate and domestic income in the demand for money in Bangladesh. This study uses post-independence quarterly data from 1974:I to 1989:IV, and employs a Savin-White (1978) econometric procedure for estimation. In addition, this study provides a battery of diagnostic tests to generate sufficient evidence on the coherence of the estimated relationships with the data. The results suggest that the economy of Bangladesh is not open, and hence foreign interest rates and currency depreciation do not play any major role in explaining the demand for money in Bangladesh. Only currency (MO) demand is significantly negatively related to domestic currency depreciation. This research also finds that in the absence of a market determined interest rate, domestic credit constraint can be used as a proxy for interest rate in money demand equation. The empirical results also suggest that the determinants are real income, lagged money stock and expected inflation.

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