The paper investigates the nature of the relationship between Bangladesh’s savings (defined as gross domestic savings or GDS) and the gross domestic product or GDP using econometric methods. Annual time series data from 1980 to 2018 are used to conduct a series of prior tests leading to two key tests on the short-run and one long-run causality between these two important macroeconomic variables. The objective of the econometric analysis is to identify the direction of causality between these two macroeconomic variables. The paper’s findings suggest a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to savings in the short run. No long-run causality, however, was found in any direction under any of the tests.Date of PublicationNovember 2024KeywordsSavings, Growth, VECM, Granger Causality, BangladeshJEL Classification CodeE21, O4, C32Recommended Citation Rahman, S. H., & Pabon, M. N. F. (2022). The saving-growth nexus in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Development Studies, 45(3/4), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.57138/TVDY6827

Trade policy is not a static phenomenon. In Bangladesh, the trade policy regime has evolved over the five decades since independence. The first two decades were lost decades as trade policy simply reflected a legacy of the past inward-looking import-substituting policy of pre-independent Bangladesh. Radical changes in trade policy and market orientation occurred during the 1990s, earning Bangladesh the moniker of “globaliser”. But liberalising policies soon gave way to resurgence of protection through high tariffs and para-tariffs. Trade policy dualism emerged with readymade garment (RMG) exports accorded a free trade channel while non-RMG exports operated under a highly restrictive and protectionist trade regime, which characterises the current state of trade policy. Given the evolving landscape of international trade, geopolitical fragmentation, creeping deglobalisation, and rising populism have been shaping global trade for nearly a decade. These could present potential challenges as well as some opportunities for Bangladesh’s future growth trajectory. As China+1 geopolynomics takes hold as a de-risking alternative to China-sourcing, our RMG industry is well placed to absorb part of the redirected additional demand given its wage competitiveness, underutilised production capacities, and capable swift-footed first-generation entrepreneurs. Date of PublicationNovember 2024KeywordsImport Substitution, Export-led Growth, Policy Dualism, DeglobalisationJEL Classification CodeF13, F14, F31Recommended Citation Sattar, Z. (2022). Bangladesh trade policy: Evolution, current state, future directions. Bangladesh Development Studies, 45(3/4), 13-33. https://doi.org/10.57138/VUOX1293

A significant empirical literature on women’s say in the household focuses on the effects of microcredit, but there is little evidence on the relative roles of access to credit and education. Using household survey data from Bangladesh, this paper provides a comparative analysis of the effects of education and credit on women’s decision-making power in the household with regard to their own and children’s health, large purchases, and geographic mobility. In the absence of credible exclusion restrictions, the paper implements Oster’s (2019) bias-adjusted OLS estimator, which extends Altonji et al.’s (2005) approach in which “selection on observables” serves as a guide to “selection on unobservables.” In addition, it uses a doubly robust radius matching estimator due to Lechner et al. (2011). The evidence suggests a limited impact of credit on the decision-making power of women, and this is consistent with the recent evidence from RCT-based studies in other developing countries. In contrast, education is much more important for enhancing women’s say in a range of household decisions. There is no significant interaction effect between education and credit. Evidence from Gelbach’s (2016) decomposition suggests that outside employment is an important mediating mechanism, but household wealth and assortative marriage matching on education are not important. The impact of education on women’s decision-making remains strong even after controlling for these mediating factors, pointing to the importance of other mechanisms, such as self-confidence and better negotiation skills of educated women. Date of PublicationNovember 2024KeywordsWomen’s Empowerment, Women’s Autonomy, Household Decision Making, Women’s Education, Women’s Access to Credit, Complementarity, Bangladesh, Bias-Adjusted OLS Estimator, Doubly Robust EstimatorJEL Classification CodeJ16, I24, O12, O16Recommended Citation Boulier, B. L., Emran, M. S., & Hoque, N. (2022). Access to credit, education, and women’s say in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Development Studies, 45(3/4), 35-71. https://doi.org/10.57138/FYPQ2725 

This study analyses the impact of global commodity price shocks associated with the Russia-Ukraine war on the Bangladesh economy. Using an economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we find that the global price shocks decrease Bangladesh's GDP by 0.3 per cent, driving an additional 4.7 million and 3.8 million people into poverty and hunger, respectively. A hypothetical increase in subsidy and cash transfer programs could be very beneficial to the vulnerable groups, reducing the poverty increase by about half. An alternative policy of price subsidies is superior to cash transfers in stimulating consumption demand. Still, the targeted cash transfer program is more effective in helping vulnerable groups and reducing negative impacts on development outcomes. Date of PublicationNovember 2024KeywordsRussia-Ukraine War, Income and Food Price Subsidies, Global Price Shocks, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.JEL Classification CodeC68, F47, O13Recommended Citation Chowdhury, T. T., Dorosh, P. A., Islam, R., & Pradesha, A. (2022). Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war price shocks on the Bangladesh economy: Policy responses and development outcomes. The Bangladesh Development Studies, 45(3/4), 73-97.  https://doi.org/10.57138/TYMH4251

Although Bangladesh has achieved remarkable economic growth and improved various health indicators, childhood stunting remains one of the major public health concerns. This paper examines the trends and patterns of childhood stunting and inequality and its socio-economic contributors in Bangladesh. Data have been extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey. The most recent five rounds (2004, 2007, 2011, 2014, and 2017-18) of the BDHS data are used. In addition, a regression-based decomposition method is applied to assess the socio-economic contributors to the inequality of childhood stunting. Findings show that the overall change in stunting prevalence from 2004 to 2017-18 accounts for about 39 per cent, while the prevalence of stunting declines at a rate of 3.26 per cent per annum — from 51 per cent in 2004 to 31 per cent in 2017-18, indicating that the inequality of childhood stunting has not improved much yet. The value of the concentration index accounts for -0.365 in 2004 and -0.352 in 2017-18. Evidence from the most recent five rounds of BDHS indicates that the household wealth index contributes the highest (about 50 per cent) to the inequality of childhood stunting in Bangladesh, followed by wealth status. The paper suggests that investing in economic status and community-based educational programs can improve childhood malnutrition situations and, at the same time, reduce inequality. Nutrition-specific interventions such as micronutrient supplemen-tation, improved food and nutrient intake during pregnancy for low-income households, and strengthening infant and young child feeding practices might also be prioritised to tackle childhood stunting. Further, investment in health and education, employment opportunities, and empowerment of poor and disadvantageous women will be essential measures to eradicate childhood stunting and its inequality at the population level. Date of PublicationNovember 2024KeywordsChildren, Stunting, Malnutrition, Inequality, BangladeshJEL Classification CodeC55, E61, I14, I15, Q18Recommended Citation Sarker, A. R., Hossain, Z. (2022). Trends and inequality of childhood stunting in Bangladesh: A household level analysis. The Bangladesh Development Studies, 45(3/4), 99-128. https://doi.org/10.57138/PUGK1540