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Economic Development and Population Policy in Bangladesh

M.R. Khan

 

Abstract

This paper deals with the population growth rate and its policy implications for the economy of Bangladesh. Despite its obvious influence on the economy, population has never been integrated as an endogenous variable in any planning model. Development Planning is mostly supported by donor agencies which involves little micro-level planning and practically no trickle-down effect. This paper makes an effort at examining the interaction of population and other development variables in the planning process of Bangladesh. The necessity of such a study can be discerned if we look into the socio-economic scenario of rural Bangladesh, where a significant proportion of the population constitute landless farmers and share-croppers and where also the land ownership pattern contribute to low productivity. Increase in population acts as a catalyst to further pauperization of rural masses. This process is further compounded by increasing foreign aid dependence, adverse terms of trade in the international market, low savings and investment and worsening terms of trade of the rural sector. During the period spanning 1949/50 to 1969/70 real per capita GDP increased only at a rate of 1% per annum and during the period from 1969/70 to 1982/83 real growth of GDP fell behind population growth rate.

Apparently there is a need for cost-benefit analysis of fertility reduction. The cost-benefit ratio of most countries vary between 1:10 to 1:30, for Bangladesh it is 1:16. Certain macro-model studies indicate that higher the intensity of fertility reduction and shorter the period of required decline, the higher will be the benefits expected in terms of gains in per capita income. There is however a contradiction between national and household interests. The latter’s decision for having more children has a negative spill over effect which nullifies the gains of the community.

Apparently this is where the role of family planning programme comes in, which although operative for along time suffered serious set-back during and after the liberation of Bangladesh mainly due to administrative reasons. Under such conditions mobilization of government machinery and raising the consciousness of people is a necessity.

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