Vector Autoregression as an Alternative Macro-Modelling Technique
A.R. Chowdhury
Abstract
Development of a macroeconomic forecasting model as an alternative to using structural econometric models based on shaky prior information is the objective of this article. Like structural models, it produces a system of equations which can project the future paths of economic variables using their historical data. Unlike the structural model, however, this model can be constructed based entirely on regularities in the data themselves. This model can be used to predict several periods in the future, analyse unexpacted shocks to the economy and also estimate the probability of future events.