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The Impact of Risk on Agricultural Production Decisions : Tests of a Safety-First Model in Bangladesh

Quazi Shahabuddin an

 

Abstract

The primary concern of this paper is to test whether or not risk influences the input and crop choices of small-holding farmers in developing countries. To this end efficiency conditions based on a risk neutral decision rule, expected profit maximization, are tested together with efficiency conditions based on Roy’s safety-first principle, which is based directly on considerations of risk. The tests are carried out using survey data collected in Bangladesh. The tests indicate some superiority of the safety-first rule, suggesting that considerations of risk do influence these decisions.

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