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A Disaggregated Model for Stabilization of Rice Prices in Bangladesh

Quazi Shahabuddin

 

Abstract

This paper builds on the earlier modelling exercise by Ahmed and Bernard (1989) for application in the rice price-stabilization procedure in Bangladesh. In fact, the paper extends the earlier model which was based on annual data to a disaggregated version based on seasonal data. Since both domestic procurement and open market sales of foodgrains, the two main instruments at the disposal of the government are essentially seasonal operations influenced by seasonal factors, a more disaggregated approach using seasonal data is considered more appropriate to estimate the quantities of grains to be procured during the harvest season and sold in the lean season to achieve the floor and ceiling price targets. Such a consistent derivation of quantity targets would not only contribute towards the preparation of a more realistic food budget but would also assist in better targeting of policy instruments for reducing both inter and intra (seasonal) year fluctuation of foodgrain prices in Bangladesh

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